I wouldnt count on a massive price drop for something like the Intel Core Ultra 9 295K Refresh 24-Core. Usually the last high-end chips on a socket hold value because everyone wants that final upgrade path. You might see a tiny discount, but waiting months just to save maybe fifty bucks usually isnt worth the lost productivity for 4K editing. Better to just grab it at launch imo.

TLDR: Arrow Lake Refresh likely wont see massive cuts since its the end of the LGA 1851 socket lifecycle. Demand for those final best in slot chips stays high, so Intel rarely slashes prices more than 5 percent. If you are doing heavy 4K video editing, focus on the specs instead of the holiday sales! The Intel Core Ultra 7 265K Refresh 20-Core is gonna be the absolute sweet spot for your build. It has amazing multi-core performance and the updated QuickSync engine makes scrubbing through 4K timelines such a breeze. Love the efficiency improvements on this gen too, definitely runs cooler than the old Raptor Lake stuff. Quick comparison for your rig:

• Intel Core Ultra 7 265K Refresh 20-Core: Fantastic for editing. Great balance of P-cores and E-cores for background rendering. Best bang for your buck.
• Intel Core Ultra 5 245K Refresh 14-Core: Fantastic for gaming or light duty, but honestly feels a bit sluggish for high-bitrate 4K exports compared to the 7 series. I would totally skip waiting for Black Friday. If you only save 30 or 40 bucks after waiting months, you basically lost money in terms of lost productivity. Grab the Ultra 7 at launch and pair it with a Crucial T705 2TB Gen5 NVMe SSD to actually feel a speed difference. The performance is incredible, so dont overthink the wait!

Building on the earlier suggestion, I totally agree that those end-of-socket chips are like gold and rarely see big drops! I have been building rigs for over a decade and honestly, the whole wait for Black Friday strategy has burned me so many times. I remember back a few years ago I sat on my hands for months waiting to save on a flagship build, and when the day finally came... the CPU price moved like twenty bucks. I was so mad! I could have been editing on a faster machine that whole time and made that money back in productivity. If you really want to stretch that $1500 for a 4K editing powerhouse, here is how I actually save money nowadays:

• Stop hunting for CPU discounts and look at motherboard bundles instead. Usually, the local shops here in Chicago will throw in a massive discount if you buy the board and chip together at the same time.
• Focus on the storage brands where the real Black Friday magic happens. You can't go wrong with Samsung NVMe SSD when it comes to reliability for 4K footage. Just grab any of their high-capacity drives on sale and you are golden.
• Go with G.Skill DDR5 RAM for your memory needs. I have used their kits in my last four builds and they are absolutely fantastic for heavy video workloads! Basically, if you have the cash now, just pull the trigger! The time you save editing is worth way more than a tiny discount in November. You are gonna love the jump in performance anyway!