Honestly, be careful with those rumors because even if they do participate, it is usually just the seasonal colors or weird sizes first. If youre looking to stay around that $3,500 mark, you might want to consider stalking the luxury department store apps instead of the brand sites directly. I have seen things go south when people wait for a public sale that never hits the flagship store... basically a total waste of time. Make sure to look at these instead of just the Loro stuff:

• Max Mara Madame 101801 Icon Coat Wool and Cashmere - keep an eye on 24S or Net-a-Porter, they usually slash prices here.
• Bottega Veneta Cassette Bag Intrecciato Leather
• SSENSE usually goes hard on these during BF.
• ZEGNA Oasi Cashmere Overcoat Navy Blue - killer quality and more likely to see a markdown than LP. I would suggest signing up for the loyalty tiers now. Sometimes the 2026 BF deals are actually hidden behind those early access emails so they dont look like theyre devaluing the brand... sneaky, right?

Just caught this thread this morning and felt the need to weigh in because I have been burned by the luxury timing game before. A few years back, I purchased a Saint Laurent Sac de Jour Grained Leather at full price, only to find a private boutique link with 40 percent off just ten days later. It was a harsh lesson in how opaque these houses can be with their inventory management. While the rumors about 2026 stock levels sound plausible, you should approach this with extreme caution. Luxury brands are notoriously protective of their brand equity and rarely participate in public BF events directly. Instead, they often use tactical offloading that isnt always obvious to the casual shopper. Based on my experience, I would suggest keeping an eye on these specific risks:

• Inventory might be redirected to secondary platforms like 24S or Net-a-Porter rather than appearing on the main brand site.
• Tier 1 brands often exclude their core permanent collection items from any public promos even if they are overstocked.
• Return policies during these high-volume sales are often final sale, which is quite risky for a $3,500 investment. If the Celine is proving elusive or you find the price point stays stagnant, I have had great luck with the quality and reliability of a Saint Laurent Le 5 à 7 Shoulder Bag Smooth Leather or looking into a Brunello Cucinelli Cashmere Coat Double Breasted if you want that same Loro Piana feel without the potential for immediate regret. Just make sure to verify the seller reputation if you end up buying from a newer third-party retailer.

I heard the same thing about the 2026 stock levels from some industry friends. Tbh the sell-through rates for the big luxury conglomerates have been tanking since early last year, so the inventory turnover ratios are way off... the warehouses are actually bursting at the seams. But you gotta be careful because the really big players like LVMH usually protect their permanents like crazy. If you're eyeing a Loro Piana Overcoat Baby Cashmere you might want to consider that they almost never put their iconic navy or camel shades on sale publically. They'd rather ship that stuff to an invite-only sample sale than let it sit on a BF rack for 30% off. Now, for the Celine Triomphe Shoulder Bag Shiny Calfskin, you might actually have better luck. I've noticed their seasonal SKU data shows certain colors hitting the sale sections of third-party retailers way faster than they used to. I would suggest keeping a close eye on the stock levels of specific items on Farfetch. If you see the stock count dropping, pull the trigger. If it's sitting at high inventory by late October, wait it out. Just make sure to double check the return policies tho, cuz some of these mega BF deals end up being final sale which is a total nightmare if the fit is off on a $3k coat. Ngl the market is definitely shifting, but the heavy hitters still value their brand equity over clearing the floor, even when the data says they should discount. Stick to the aggregators for the actual 30% cuts.