Chicago winters really dont play around so I totally get the stress. I've lived here for fifteen years and honestly, the way retailers handle Black Friday has shifted so much lately. A few years back, I spent weeks hunting for a deal on a high-fill power parka and kept hitting the same walls you are... low stock and fake discounts. I eventually stopped chasing the big name hype and went with the REI Co-op Magma 850 Down Hoodie 2.0 during a member sale. Tbh, I have been so satisfied with it. It has kept me warm waiting for the L in sub-zero wind chills and the build quality is top notch. What I've noticed is that brands like Patagonia are moving their major clearances to their Web Specials section earlier in the fall or even mid-February to avoid the holiday rush. If you need something right now for under $400 that actually performs, I’d suggest looking at the Outdoor Research Alpine Down Hooded Jacket 800-fill. I bought one for my son last year and its worked well for his commute too. No complaints about the warmth or the durability at all. Usually, these mid-tier technical brands offer way more bang for your buck than Arcteryx anyway, which rarely hits deep discounts in November. You gotta look at the sites like Backcountry or Moosejaw instead of the main brand stores... they tend to have better actual inventory left when the rush hits.

Re: "Chicago winters really dont play around so I..." - definitely agree. Ive tried many brands over the years and tbh most BF sales are basically marketing fluff now. Since you're in Chicago, I'd prioritize reliability and safety over everything else:

• Eddie Bauer Peak XV Down Parka 800 Fill Power is a total tank for sub-zero winds.
• REI Co-op Stormhenge Down Hybrid Jacket 850 Fill is a safer bet for longevity and staying dry.

Iirc, retail logistics shifted recently... not totally sure but I think theyre holding back high-fill inventory to manipulate demand curves. Maybe check pro-deal sites or liquidators instead of standard retail?